Interpreting Global Energy and Emission Scenarios:

Methods for Understanding and Communicating Policy Insights

Holmes Hummel, PhD

hummel@stanfordalumni.org

Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources

Stanford University

Dissertation completed December 2006

Faculty Committee: John Weyant, Stephen Schneider, Jonathan Koomey, Gil Masters

Abstract of the research:

Energy scenarios for the 21^st century powerfully inform perceptions and expectations in the minds of investors, consumers, and policy-makers.  Scenarios that stabilize global warming call for large-scale energy technology transitions, fueling debates about the relative roles for a range of technologies including nuclear power, carbon sequestration, biofuels, solar power, and efficient end-use devices.  Though hundreds of these scenarios have been published in the last decade, a gap in understanding remains between scenario analysts and the audiences their work is designed to serve. 

This research applies two analytical techniques to investigate the effects of an imposed climate policy on the underlying energy system. The first disentangles the effect of a policy intervention on key demographic and technology drivers of fossil fuel use, and the second decomposes reductions in emissions by specific energy technology types. Because the techniques may be applied to any energy scenario with technology detail, this study demonstrates their application to a dozen sample stabilization scenarios from three leading models. Revealing the importance of data and assumptions overlooked or not well disclosed in the past, the results highlight an implausibly high pressure on energy supply innovations while the potential for energy efficiency improvements is systematically underestimated. The findings are significant to both scenario analysts and the decision-makers in public policy and private investment who are influenced by their work.

Summary Presentation: Plenary Presentation to the International Energy Workshop 2007

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Dissertation Contents

Chapter 1 Introduction

Chapter 2 Background: Scenario Analysis & Climate Change

Chapter 3 Stabilization Scenarios

Chapter 4 Decomposing Key Drivers in Emissions Scenarios

Chapter 5 Decomposing Sources of Mitigation

Chapter 6 Conclusions

Appendix I: Data Fields in Analysis

Appendix I Data Fields Requested for Analysis

Appendix II: Notes on Sources of Sample Scenarios:

Appendix II.1 MiniCAM

Appendix II.2 IMAGE 2.2

Appendix II.3 MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III : Sample Scenarios:

Appendix III.1 B2 – 550ppmv CO₂ MiniCAM

Appendix III.2 B2 – 550ppmv CO₂ IMAGE 2.2

Appendix III.3 B2 – 550ppmv CO₂ MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.4 A1T – 450ppmv CO₂ WBGU MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.5 B1 – 400ppmv CO₂ WBGU MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.6 A2 – 550ppmv CO₂ MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.7 A2r – 4.5 W/m² (670ppmv CO₂-eq) MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.8 B2 – 3.2 W/m2 (520ppmv CO₂-eq) MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.9 B1 – 2.8 W/m2 (480ppmv CO₂-eq) MESSAGE-MACRO

Appendix III.10 B1 – 450ppmv CO₂ (Early Action) IMAGE 2.2

Appendix III.11 A1B – 550ppmv CO₂ IMAGE 2.2

Entire dissertation (482 pages)

Visual Aids from Dissertation Defense on December 1, 2006 – less animation

Visual Aids from Dissertation Defense – more animation

Errata

Feedback is appreciated, and data files are available upon request: hummel@stanfordalumni.org